Buoyant economy steels Brexiters’ resolve on EU talks ahead
Patrick Minford takes great pleasure in the British economy’s buoyancy since the UK voted to leave the EU, which he contends has steeled resolve to follow through with Brexit.
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https://www.ft.com/content/354f62b8-d8d6-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e
Mr Minford, a one-time adviser to Margaret Thatcher who has become one of the most prominent economists in the Brexit camp, focuses with particular zeal on the inaccuracy of the pro-EU side’s predictions that a vote to leave would hammer confidence.
Such pessimistic views were once widespread, but last week Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, admitted that his own prophecies of an immediate post-vote downturn were misjudged.
For Mr Minford, the failure of his opponents’ forecasts is vital in the fight over how the UK leaves the EU and what sort of relationship it builds in future with the bloc.
“They are hoping slower growth will turn public opinion against Brexit,” he said. “If these guys were right, we’d be seeing it by now.”
In the run-up to the referendum, economics was the Remain campaign’s favoured weapon. As Leavers appealed to British hearts with the promise of regaining sovereignty and “taking back control”, chancellor George Osborne and others countered with warnings on the hit to growth and public finances.
Detractors dubbed this “project fear” — although they worried themselves about an immediate hit to confidence in the wake of a vote to leave. Even Mr Minford himself expected growth to turn slightly negative at the end of last year
